Is Portland State Playoff Worthy?

Portland State's Connor Kavanaugh has Portland State in the discussion for a playoff bid.

Nigel Burton and the Portland State Vikings hope they have a very good reason to rise early on Sunday morning to watch the Division I Football playoff selection show.

Heck, if the Vikings beat Weber State on Saturday at JELD-WEN Field, they might not sleep at all in anticipation of the telecast, which begins at 7 a.m. Pacific time on ESPNU. A win means Portland State will find itself on the bubble for one of the 10 at-large playoff bids.

Regardless, it has already been a tremendous season. In Burton’s second campaign, the Vikings have won seven games following a 2-9 year. If Portland State wins Saturday, the eight-victory season will be just one fewer than the Vikings produced during the three-year reign of Jerry Glanville. Burton deserves heavy consideration for the Eddie Robinson Award, given to the top coach at the FCS level.

A Portland State victory on Saturday would be the squad’s fifth-straight, an amazing feat considering senior All-Conference running back Cory McCaffrey hasn’t played since sustaining an injury on Oct. 15 in a 30-24 loss at Montana.

Usually, a team finishing 6-2 in Big Sky play and 8-3 overall would be a lock for a playoff bid. However, Portland State’s schedule could keep the Vikings out. Portland State has victories over NAIA Southern Oregon and Division III Willamettte. That means Portland State would be 6-3 against Division I teams.

No team with fewer than seven Division I victories has ever received an at-large bid to the playoffs. It’s not a rule, but a guideline for the playoff committee. We know that guideline was challenged last year, the first time the playoff field expanded from 16 to 20 teams. Squads like Montana and James Madison, which didn’t meet the seven-win Division I criteria, were in discussion for at-large bids.

With the expanded playoff field, it’s just a matter of time before a team without seven Division I wins gets the nod, and it could be the time. If the committee’s goal is to find the 10 best at-large teams in the country, then there is certainly no reason Portland State shouldn’t receive an at-large bid.

The Vikings are currently ranked 15th among FCS teams in the Sagarin Computer Rankings, and 21st in this week’s Gridiron Power Index, well ahead of some other teams that enter this weekend on the bubble.

Portland State’s three losses came by two points to top-ranked Montana State, seven points on the road at No. 7 Montana, and on the road at TCU, ranked 18th this week in the Sagarin Ratings and coming off an upset of Boise State.

Montana State and Montana will both be in the playoff field. The winner of their matchup on Saturday gets the Big Sky’s automatic bid to the playoffs. The loser is all but assured of an at-large bid.

It should also be noted that Portland State never intended to play two non-Division I teams. Burton said this week the Vikings were scheduled to play Colorado, but the Buffs had to drop the Vikings after going to the Pac-12 to accommodate their new conference schedule. Burton said the Vikings were very close to scheduling another FCS team, but it didn’t happen, leaving the Vikings virtually no option but to play another non-Division I team.

Let’s take a look at how the Vikings stack up against some of the other bubble teams:

A win by Wofford over Chattanooga on Saturday would make the Terriers 8-3, with seven Division I victories. The Terries have a marquee win over Appalachian State, with losses to Furman, Georgia Southern and FBS Clemson. A win over Chattanooga isn’t a guarantee. The Mocs are 5-5 with one-point losses to Georgia Southern and The Citadel, and a two-point loss to Appalachian State. Wofford plays in the Southern Conference, which has been rated as the strongest FCS conference this season. Wofford could be in even with a loss to Chattanooga.

There are three Ohio Valley Conference teams in the mix. One will gain the league’s automatic bid to the playoffs.

Eastern Kentucky is 6-4 overall, and would get to the seven Division I victory threshold with a win Saturday over Tennessee Martin. Eastern Kentucky is tied for 35th in this week’s GPI. Eastern Kentucky has a good 10-7 loss to Kansas State on its resume, as well as a bad loss to Austin Peay. EKU won five in a row before a loss to Tennessee-Martin last week.

Jacksonville State made the playoff field last season, but is on the bubble this year at 6-4. Jacksonville State has lost three of its last four, and beat a struggling Southeast Missouri State team by just one point last week. Jacksonville State is 48th in the GPI.

Tennessee Tech is also in the hunt for the Ohio Valley Automatic bid, and enters the final weekend 6-3 and is playing just 10 games this season. That, in my mind, should hurt more than playing 11 games.

The Ohio Valley is ranked eighth among FCS conferences in the Sagarin, while the Big Sky is fourth. The OVC is also eighth in the GPI, while the Big Sky is fifth behind the Southern, Missouri Valley, Colonial and Great West.

The Great West does not get an automatic bid to the playoffs, and it doesn’t appear like any of its five teams are in line for at at-large bid. Four of those Great West teams join the Big Sky in 2012. Neither North Dakota nor South Dakota, which play in the Great West, are playoff eligible this season.

The Ohio Valley has also not had any playoff success in recent seasons. Since 2004, Ohio Valley teams are 0-9 in the playoffs.

During that same span, Big Sky teams have played for four national championships, with Eastern Washington winning last season. Since 2004, Big Sky teams are 19-15 in the playoffs.

The very strong Missouri Valley has three teams on the bubble. Illinois State is 7-3 and Indiana State and Youngstown State are both 6-4.

Illinois State closes at home on Saturday against fourth-ranked Northern Iowa. Illinois State has won five in a row since a loss to No. 5 North Dakota State.

Youngstown State plays 1-9 Missouri State on Saturday. Youngstown State is coming off an upset of then-No. 1 North Dakota State. The Penguins losses are to Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Indiana State and South Dakota State.

Indiana State plays at home against Southern Illinois on Saturday. Indiana State has lost three of its last five all to teams likely to make the playoffs – North Dakota State, Illinois State and Northern Iowa. Indiana State does have an impressive 44-16 win over FBS Western Kentucky.

Portland State really needs both Youngstown State and Indiana State to lose, in our opinion.

New Hampshire of the powerful CAA brings a 7-3 record into its finale against Maine, which is going to make the playoff field.

New Hampshire has losses to playoff-bound Towson, FBS Toledo and William & Mary. New Hampshire’s resume lacks a sparkling win, but the same could be said for Portland State.

The CAA has normally been the top FCS conference in the computer rankings, but is down a bit this year. The CAA is third in the GPI and fifth in the Sagarin. Towson, Old Dominion and Maine are playoff locks from the CAA.

James Madison from the CAA could also be considered for an at-large bid. The Dukes would be 7-4 with a win over UMass on Saturday. James Madison has lost to Maine, New Hampshire and Old Dominion, and is 22nd in the GPI.

Delaware, which lost to Eastern Washington in last year’s championship game, is 23rd in the GPI. Delaware has beaten Towson and Old Dominion, but only has five Division I victories. The Blue Hens can get to six with a win over Villanova on Saturday.

Two teams from the MEAC – Bethune-Cookman (7-3) and Florida A&M (7-3) – will also likely on the board. The MEAC, however, is ranked 11th in the Sagarin and 12th in the GPI. Bethune-Cookman is 47th in the GPI, while Florida A&M is 72nd. Since 2004, the MEAC is 0-7 in playoff games.

Portland State has a chance, but the Vikings need help. Plus, Weber State is no slouch. Plus the Wildcats will be fired up to send retiring head coach Ron McBride out with a victory. A loss to the Wildcats, and there will be no reason at all for the Vikings to rise early on Sunday.

Jon Kasper - Big Sky Conference