Eastern Washington and Montana State both begin their quest for Frisco this Saturday with Division I second-round home games.
Weather probably won't be a factor. The forecast in Cheney on Saturday calls for highs near 30 and sun. In Bozeman, it is supposed to be slightly colder with a chance of snow showers.
Southeast Missouri State, located in Cape Girardeau, has experienced temperatures in the 30s this week. North Dakota State is in Fargo. The Bison play in a dome, but have been practicing outdoors this week. It's been in the teens with high winds in Fargo.
Eastern Washington finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak and took over the No. 1 ranking in both of the major FCS polls. Still, the Eagles drew just a No. 5 seed.
The Eagles welcome Southeast Missouri State to "The Inferno" on Saturday. Southeast Missouri State has never played a postseason game in the 104-year history of its football program. When the Redhawks step on the red turf on Saturday, it will be the teams' first game since Nov. 13. That could be a factor. The Redhawks didn't play on Nov. 20, the final Saturday of the regular season. That's 21 days without competing in a game.
The game features the top two all-purpose yardage leaders in the FCS. Eastern Washington features junior Taiwan Jones. Southeast Missouri State has Henry Harris. Jones averages 134.4 rushing yards per game. Harris averages 147.9. Harris also carried the ball 109 more times than Jones, who averages an amazing 7.6 yards per carry.
Eastern Washington brings more balance offensively to the table. SEMO throws the ball just 15 times a game and ranks 114th in the nation in passing offense. EWU ranks 22nd in passing offense at 245.64 yards per game.
EWU's defense, led by Buck Buchanan Award candidate J.C. Sherritt, has been great at forcing turnovers this season. The Eagles rank second in the nation in interceptions and third in turnovers forced. SEMO has thrown just one interception all season and ranks second in the nation in turnover margin.
Here are my keys for EWU to win on Saturday.
1. Contain Harris and the Redhawks running game. SEMO and Harris will certainly get yards on the ground, but the Eagles need to get the job done on third down. More important is first down. EWU needs to force SEMO into long yardage situations on second and third down.
2. Win the special teams. SEMO has allowed four kick returns for touchdowns. EWU's Jesse Hoffman has two kick returns for touchdowns.
3. Come out fast and furious. SEMO hasn't played in 21 days, and it is the program's first ever playoff game. Take advantage of playing at home, and take advantage of past playoff experience.
4. Don't turn the ball over. Odds are, the Eagle defense isn't going to intercept two or three passes in the game. The EWU offense needs to take care of the ball.
Over in Bozeman, No. 4 seed Montana State welcomes North Dakota State to Bozeman. The Bison of the Missouri Valley, beat Robert Morris 43-17 last week. Montana State enjoyed a week off following an emotional 21-16 win over rival Montana.
I really like Montana State's chances in this game. The Bobcats are well-rested and chompin' at the bit to make a run. North Dakota State opened the season with a 6-3 win at Kansas, but really had mixed results the rest of the season. That were a big road win at Youngstown State on Oct. 9, but also road losses at Northern Iowa, Illinois State and 3-0 to Missouri State in the final regular-season game of the year.
Montana State's offense has been pretty much unstoppable - with the exception of the Northern Arizona game. MSU ranks in the top 10 in the nation in passing, scoring and total yards. NDSUs is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense, but just 65th overall, and 86th against the run.
Montana State's defense went through a bad stretch midway through the season, giving up 61 points to Sacramento State, 31 to Portland State, 34 to Northern Arizona and 35 to Northern Colorado. The Bobcats righted that ship late, giving up 10 to Weber State and 16 to Montana.
North Dakota State has been very average on offense this season, thanks large in part to QB injuries. NDSU ranks 86th in the nation in total offense and 61st in total offense.
Running back D.J. McNorton is the top threat. He had 110 rushing and 110 receiving yards against Robert Morris. He ranks 19th in the nation in rushing and averages a touchdown per game. On the road, however, McNorton, has just one rushing touchdown and just one 100-yard rushing game.
Montana State QB Denarius McGhee is just a freshman, but I don't think that will factor. The guy just went to Missoula, Mont., and led his team to a win in front of more than 26,000 fans on a cold and windy day in Missoula. McGhee can handle the playoff pressure, which will seem like just another game following the rivalry game.
Here are my keys to a Bobcat win:
1. Don't let the Bison offense get comfortable. The Bobcat defense needs to set the tone early. Don't let the Bison offense gain confidence.
2. Orenzo Davis. The Bobcat running game needs to have a big day so that his team doesn't become a one-trick pony.
3. Turnovers. If there has been a problem with the MSU offense it has been fumbles. Don't give NDSU extra chances.
Here's hoping to an All-Big Sky quarterfinal game next Saturday in Bozeman.
Jon Kasper - Big Sky Conference
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